Sunday, July 4, 2010
forex my dollar
Friday, June 4, 2010
Daily analysis and trading strategies 6-4-10
Trading strategy: standing aside
Yesterday’s break above the triangle’s resistance line coming from 1.3360 was not sustained and the euro came under selling pressure, bringing the 1.2150 support region back in focus, negating my expectations that euro’s recovery could have continued towards 1.2430/50. Support into the 1.2150 region still holds and this is the 3rd week it comes under pressure. Keep in mind that EURCHF is also near recent bottom where SNB’s interventions were triggered, and if that is the case, again, potential intervention in EURCHF will push the EUR higher against the USD, too. In case of a pullback to the upside, resistance may limit gains at 1.2250 or higher, at 1.2330/50. Today’s NFP release is expected to print a positive figure of 500k. Current exchange rate is 1.2176 @04:50 GMT
Support: 1.2150, 1.2100/10 and 1.200
Resistance: 1.2250, 1.2340, 1.2430/50 and 1.2470/00
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish
- EURUSD 4hrs chart 6-4-2010
GBPUSD
Cable lost some ground and fell below the 1.4700 mark for the second time this week, but found support around 1.4600 – formed by last week’s top side. Short-term sentiment remains slightly bullish as long as the rising trend line connecting recent higher lows is intact. Current exchange rate is 1.4631 @04:50 GMT
Support:1.4600, 1.4550 and 1.4400
Resistance: 1.4730/60, 1.4800 and 1.4900
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – neutral
- GBPUSD 4hrs chart 6-4-2010
Have a good day!
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
EURO
The pair continued its negative pressure in order to breach pivotal support shown in red in the image above, where it has currently turned into resistance at 1.2360. We expect this level to be retested due to the positive effect of momentum indicators, followed by continuing the bearish intraday trend and initially targeting key support 1.2180. It is vital that the four hour closing continues below 1.2360 to maintain the suggested scenario.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2180 and the key resistance at 1.2470.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.3770 remains intact with targets at 1.1700.
Support: 1.2270, 1.2230, 1.2180, 1.2140, 1.2125
Resistance: 1.2360, 1.2410, 1.2470, 1.2545, 1.2615
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.2360 targeting 1.2180 and stop loss above 1.2470, might be appropriate.
GBP
The pivotal support level 1.4345 – 1.4340 maintains its stance in front of the pair's attempts to descend, where it has started to form a possible neckline for the bearish technical pattern that is completed. Due to the effect of the minor descending channel which controls intraday trading, we expect a breach of this level to pave the way towards the expected bearish direction over an intraday basis; targeting first 1.4230. This scenario first requires a clear breach of the mentioned level as well as stability below 1.4420 to prevail.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4155 and the key resistance at 1.4460.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.5590 remains intact with targets at 1.3800.
Support: 1.4340, 1.4295, 1.4230, 1.4195, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4420, 1.4460, 1.4530, 1.4600, 1.4640
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.4345 targeting 1.4415 and stop loss below 1.4295, might be appropriate.
JPY
The pair's trading is wedged between correction 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci for the last bearish wave, where it seems that there isn't enough momentum to retest the previously broken support level at 91.10. From here, we expect a base to be built on 38.2% Fibonacci at 90.70, followed by a bearish reversal that the pair will achieve through it the bearish intraday trend; targets start at 89.00 and require the daily closing to stabilize below 91.10.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 88.70 and the key resistance at 91.10.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 101.65 remains intact with targets at 82.60.
Support: 90.00, 89.65, 89.00, 88.70, 88.40
Resistance: 91.10, 91.60, 92.25, 92.80, 93.30
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 91.00 targeting 90.00 and stop loss above 91.60, might be appropriate.
CHF
The pair stabilized above the resistance for the sideway range shown yesterday at 1.1585, while signs of an ascending channel that organizes the current short term wave is appearing. Despite of the negative signs appearing on momentum indicators, currently MA 50 supports the bullish wave; therefore, we expect the pair to witness more bullish movement over an intraday basis, as its main target for today is level 1.1790 and requires the stability of support levels between 1.1530 – 1.1460 to prevail. Meanwhile, overbought momentum indicators could cause fluctuation and some bearish correction from time to time.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1460 and the key resistance at 1.1790.
The short term trend is to the upside as far as 1.0200 remains intact with targets at 1.2000.
Support: 1.1585, 1.1535, 1.1460, 1.1430, 1.1385
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1685, 1.1735, 1.1790, 1.1825
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.1585 targeting 1.1685 and stop loss below 1.1535, might be appropriate.
CAD
The pair stabilized with correction levels between 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci, in addition to MA 100 standing as strong support in front of the pair's attempts to bearishly correct. Meanwhile, the pair managed to push upwards to breach minor pivotal resistance at 1.0660 that will pave the way towards achieving the bullish trend over an intraday basis. The negative momentum we can expect to rid of them when the broken resistance is retested. Technical targets expected for today start at 1.0745 then 1.0795. It is vital that 1.0565 stabilizes to achieve expectations.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0565 and the key resistance at 1.0865.
The short term trend is to the upside as far as 0.9925 remains intact with targets at 1.1485.
Support: 1.0660, 1.0610, 1.0565, 1.0535, 1.0500
Resistance: 1.0745, 1.0785, 1.0865, 1.0900, 1.0960
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0660 targeting 1.0795 and stop loss below 1.0565, might be appropriate.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
The Trading Week: May 24 - May 28
In preparation for the new trading week, here is a look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.
Monday, May 24 will begin with the Japanese All Industries Index of activity in all sectors of the economy, at 12:30 am, ET, and the Bank of Japan Monthly Bulletin on monetary policy, inflation and economic conditions, at 1:00 am, ET.
The first spotlight event of the week- the U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, will be released at 10:00 am, ET.
As home buyers made the final push trying to take advantage of the tax credit before the April 30, 2010 deadline, the existing home sales could rise to 5.65 M in April from 5.4 M homes sold in March.
The light on economic data day will conclude with the New Zealand Inflation Expectations survey on the inflation outlook of business executives, at 11:00 pm, ET.
Tuesday, May 25 will start with the Swiss Consumption Indicator of consumer spending, at 2:00 am, ET.
One of the major spotlight events of the week will follow with the release of the U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, at 4:30 am, ET, along with a leading indicator of the U.K. housing market- the British Bankers Association’s Mortgage Approvals Report, measuring the number of issued home loans, also at 4:30 am, ET.
The U.K. economic growth in Q1 2010 is expected to be revised higher to 0.3% q/q from the preliminary estimate of 0.2% q/q.
The Euro-zone Industrial Orders, a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, will come at 5:00 am, ET.
The U.S. economic data will begin with the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index of the monthly changes in the average price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas, at 9:00 am, ET.
A spotlight event will follow with the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, at 10:00 am, ET. The trend of rising consumer confidence could continue with a reading of 58.3 in May, compared with 57.9 in the previous month.
More U.S. economic reports will include the Richmond Fed Index of manufacturing activity in the Richmond Federal Reserve district, at 10:00 am, ET, and the U.S. House Price Index of the price changes of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie May and Freddie Mac, also at 10:00 am, ET.
The day will end with the Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes from the last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy and the bank’s future monetary policy, at 7:50 pm, ET, along with the Japanese CSPI- Corporate Services Price Index, a measure of inflation experienced by corporations when purchasing services, also at 7:50 pm, ET.
Wednesday, May 26 will begin with the German Gfk Group Consumer Climate Survey, an early indicator of economic conditions and consumer expectations, at 2:00 am, ET, and the U.K. Nationwide House Price Index of changes in home prices, also expected around 2:00 am, ET.
The U.S economic data will start with a spotlight event- the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity, measuring orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods, at 8:30 am, ET.
Orders for durable goods are forecasted to increase to 1.4% in April from the March decline of 0.3%.
More U.S economic reports will include a spotlight event- the U.S. New Home Sales, a gauge of housing market conditions measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the previous month, at 10:00 am, ET, and the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Oil Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.
The second half of the U.S. housing data could show further signs of improvement in housing market activity, with the new home sales expected to rise from 411 K in March to 425 K in April.
The day will conclude with a series of important economic data, beginning with the New Zealand Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports, at 6:45 pm, ET.
A spotlight event will follow with the release of the Japanese Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services, at 7:50 pm, ET.
With the Japanese industrial activity and exports picking up in Q1 2010, the trade surplus may rise above JPY 948.9 B in April.
The Australian Leading Indicators of economic activity will wrap up the day at 8:00 pm, ET.
Thursday, May 27 will start with the Swiss Employment Report, a measure of employment, labor market conditions and trends, at 3:15 am, ET.
A notable report from the U.K. will follow with the release of the CBI- Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trades Survey of realized sales made by retailers and wholesalers, at 6:00 am, ET.
The U.S. economic data will bring the main spotlight event of the week- the U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the most important measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, at 8:30 am, ET.
The U.S. economic growth in Q1 2010 is expected to be revised higher to 3.3% q/q compared with the preliminary estimate of 3.2% q/q.
The U.S. reports will continue with the weekly Jobless Claims, a gauge of labor market conditions measuring new unemployment claims, at 8:30 am, ET, and the EIA- Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.
The day will conclude with a sequence of important economic data, beginning with the U.K. Consumer Confidence, a survey of consumers’ outlook on economic conditions, at 7:00 pm, ET.
A major spotlight event- the Japanese CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, will hit the newswires at 7:30 pm, ET, along with the Japanese Unemployment Rate and Household Spending, also at 7:30 pm, ET.
The CPI report could show that deflation continues to pose threat to the Japanese economy with anticipated April national core CPI reading of -1.1%.
The day will end with the Japanese Retail Sales, an important measure of consumer spending, at 7:50 pm, ET.
Friday, May 28 will begin with the Swiss Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports, at 2:15 am, ET, and the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, a leading indicator of economic activity, at 5:30 am, ET.
The Canadian Current Account of goods, services and transfer of payments into and out of the country will follow at 8:30 am, ET.
One of the major spotlight events of the week will bring the U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Deflator- a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Fed because it measures a variable basket of goods and services, as opposed to the CPI-Consumer Price Index which measures a fixed basket of goods and services, both scheduled at 8:30 am, ET.
The data is expected to show the U.S. consumers spending less at 0.3% m/m in April from 0.6% m/m in March, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could signal subdued inflationary pressures below 2.0% y/y and only 0.1% m/m increase in the core PCE prices in April.
The U.S. data will continue with the National Association of Purchasing Management – Chicago Index of economic conditions in the Chicago area, at 9:45 am, ET.
The trading week will end with a spotlight event- the U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, scheduled at 9:55 am, ET.
The index could confirm the trend of rising consumer sentiment with a reading of 73.7 in May, compared with the previous estimate of 73.3.
Friday, May 21, 2010
EURJPY closed @ 11200 which was BELOW the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 135 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 10. The Hourly Oscillators are Turning Bullish and the Price is Below the MA, so the Bears have to be CAUTIOUS. Hourly Trend is Turning Up while 11170 holds and Daily Trend is Corrective Down while 11785 holds, so expect the Price to Turn Up Soon, so the Bears may stay Sidelined and the Bulls get ready to pull the Trigger. The Daily Trend breached the Prior Day's Low but the Bears gave up more than half of their gains towards the Close. The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with an Upside Bias ,11230-11170 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bullish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the steep Up Channel and the Patterns are suggesting that the Price may have bottomed. The Opening Price Principles suggests that EUR is very Strong and the JPY is Weak, so the both the Cross may drag the EURJPY Higher so the Bears must be Sidelined.
BULLS: 11300 11240 11170 BEARS: 11400 11485 11565
Today's Strategies: LONG near 11305 11230 with a tight stop with a 50 pips price target.
GBPJPY closed @ 12885 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Critical Sup. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the Price is Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Corrective Down while 13105 holds and Daily Trend is also Corrective Down while 13565 holds, so expect the Price to have a Limited Downside and the Bears have to be Cautious. The Daily Trend Plunged Below the Prior Day's Low but the Bears gave up part of their gains towards the Close. The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with an Upside Bias ,13065-13105 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the gradual Up Channel and the Patterns are suggesting that the Price may bottom Soon. The Opening Price Principles suggests that GBP is Strong and the JPY is Weak, so the both the Cross may drag the GBPJPY Higher so the Bears must be Sidelined.
BULLS: 12935 12860 12775 BEARS: 13025 13105 13185
Today's Strategies: LONG near 12940 12870 with a tight stop with a 50 pips price target.
AUDJPY closed @ 7330 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 265 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 10. The Hourly Oscillators are Turning Bullish and the Price is Below the MA, so the Bears have to be CAUTIOUS. Hourly Trend is Turning Up while 7310 holds and Daily Trend is Corrective Down while 8040 holds, so expect the Price to Turn Up Soon, so the Bears may stay Sidelined and the Bulls get ready to pull the Trigger. The Daily Trend Plunged Below the Prior Day's Low but the Bears were holding their gains till the Close. The Hourly Trend has been marching Higher and expect it to continue , 7415-7310 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bullish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the steep Up Channel and the Patterns are suggesting that the Price may have bottomed. The Opening Price Principles suggests that AUD is very Strong and the JPY is Weak, so the both the Cross may drag the AUDJPY Higher so the Bears must be Sidelined.
BULLS: 7430 7345 7305 BEARS: 7530 7660 7740
Today's Strategies: LONG near 7435 7370 with a tight stop with a 50 pips price target.
credit: forexpros
FX Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Comment: A small inverted 'head-and-shoulders' on the hourly chart above underlines the fact the Euro is trying to base against 1.2140, the 50% retracement of its rally from the all-time low at 0.8228 in October 2000 to the record high at 1.6040 in July 2008. A high today at 1.2673, shy of our first target at 1.2700, suggests consolidation between here and the 'neckline' this morning. A weekly close above 1.2800, which might be too much for this week, would add weight to our view that we are trying to form a medium term interim base.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.2595, adding to 1.2500; stop below 1.2200. First target 1.2700.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.2500 " | 1.26 |
| 1.2455* | 1.2673* |
| 1.24 | 1.27 |
| 1.2345 | 1.2740* |
| 1.2295* 1.2140** | 1.28 |
GBPUSD
Comment: Neither the best nor the worst performing currency this week – which is where you want to be in current market conditions. Cable is still clinging to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement support in a small sideways consolidation. A weekly close above 1.4550 might buy it a little room to breathe and ought to set off a short squeeze to 1.4750.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4410; stop below 1.4200. First target 1.4500, then 1.4745.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.4300 " | 1.4468 |
| 1.4248/1.4238* | 1.4522 |
| 1.42 | 1.4550* |
| 1.4135 | 1.4645 |
| 1.4100* | 1.4745 |
USDJPY
Comment: It looks like a 'triangle', it feels like nervous consolidation in a massive 'triangle', it is a continuation pattern. Many are hoping that markets that have suddenly collapsed will find support around this year's lows, the rumour mill suggesting some intervention is likely (Australia) or has been seen (Switzerland). Another nerve-wracking weekend lies in store. What would you do? Live in hope or take defensive action? Bearish momentum is currently stronger than it has been since May 2009 and a weekly close clearly below 88.70 would be very, very negative indeed. Then listen for squeals from the authorities.
Strategy: Sell at 90.25 but only if prepared to add to 91.50; stop above 92.15. First target 89.00, then 88.00.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 90.00 " | 90.37 |
| 89.7 | 90.75 |
| 89.35 | 91.00* |
| 88.95* | 91.5 |
| 87.95** | 91.85 |
EURJPY
Comment: All too many will be looking at yen crosses and stock indices, pointing out how close we are to this year's lows, fingers crossed that chart support will hold. We disagree and feel we have a nail-biting weekend ahead. Yesterday's large 'spike low' at 109.47 is the lowest point since November 2001 a 75% retracement from the all-time low at 88.93 of October 2000 to the all-time high at 169.97 of July 2008. The chart is looking increasingly like a 'right-angled triangle' – a continuation pattern which suggests another leg lower for the yen crosses. This is a market trading at an extreme and desperately looking for direction while the authorities hope for support. A real tussle which increasingly looks as though it will be resolved with a huge clear-out to the downside.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 113.35, adding to 114.40; stop above 115.65. Target 112.00, then 110.50 and eventually more
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 112.45 " | 114.4 |
| 111 | 115 |
| 110.85 | 115.58* |
| 110.49/110.25* | 116.5 |
| 109.47* 108.70 106.80* | 117 |
Forex: USD/JPY picks up from 88.95 and reaches 90.00 area
On the upside, the pair remains capped by session high at 90.35, with next potential resistance areas at 90.85/95 (May 19 high) and 91.20 (200-day MA). On the downside, immediate support lies at 89.95, and below here, 89.60/75 (intra-day support) and 89.30/40 (intra-day support).
EUR/JPY plunged yesterday from 114.00 area to hit fresh 9,5 years low at 109.45 on US session, although the pair has managed to regain all the lost territory, reaching 114.40 high on Asian trade, before pulling back to 113.20 at European opening. Resistance levels are 114.40 and 114.80. Support levels lie at 112.10 and 111.00.
EUR/JPY (May 21 at 07:09 GMT)
113.70/73 (2.14%)
H 114.41 L 111.18
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 112.65 | 112.94 | 113.22 | 113.57 | 113.85 | 114.14 |
| [?]Trend Index | [?]OB/OS Index |
| Slightly Bearish | Neutral |
| Data updated on May 21 at 06:58 (15-minute timeframe) | |
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Did Central Bank Intervene On EUR?
Euro strength was based on rumours, both unfounded, that a) the ECB was leading a coordinated effort of euro buying to bid up the price and b) that Greece was considering leaving the EU. One central bank that was happy to intervene was the Swiss National Bank who jumped into the market to sell the franc against the euro with EURCHF moving from 1.40 to 1.43 in a matter of minutes. This had the effect of strengthening the euro against its other crosses pushing EURUSD up into the 1.23s and GBPEUR down to the low 1.16s.
As I said, this euro strength is unlikely to remain for long as every trade recommendation on EURUSD that I’ve seen from banks and hedge funds is to ‘sell spikes’ i.e. to short little pop-ups like this.
GBP was dragged higher against the dollar as the risk atmosphere improved in light of the euro’s appreciation. This was in spite of a fairly poor set of minutes from the Bank of England. While the view was indeed a 9-0 consensus, the markets are still somewhat shifty about how the Bank of England will walk the tight-rope between dealing with our high inflation levels and still allowing the recovery to flourish.
Markets did remain volatile for the rest of the day as investors dealt with the repercussions of the German ban on ‘naked’ short-selling. Equity market futures suggest a positive open for the FTSE and other European markets this morning however.
Interesting day for the pound looking forward today with our retail sales measure at 09.30. We expect this to be roughly positive as the effect of the improving weather is balanced out by people waiting until after the election to make large purchases. The consensus view is 0.3%. We also have a UK debt auction with the DMO selling UK 2020 bonds at a vield of 4.75%. given the recent concerns over the UK’s ability to raise funds in the market the bid-to-cover ratio will be a useful barometer of how the market perceives the UK.
Latest Exchange Rates At Time Of Writing (Back by Popular Demand)
Indicative Rates Sell Buy
GBPEUR 1.1550 1.1579
GBPUSD 1.4346 1.4370
EURUSD 1.2405 1.2426
GBPJPY 131.04 131.35
GBPAUD 1.7238 1.7265
GBPNZD 2.1116 2.1153
GBPCAD 1.5078 1.5110
NZDUSD 0.6780 0.6799
GBPZAR 11.19 11.24
USDZAR 7.7969 7.8311
GBPPLN 4.7474 4.7858
EURJPY 113.25 113.51
Rates are dependent on amount transacted.
Source : fxstreet.com
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
EUR/USD: Bullish Engulfing and Approaching Important Level
Yesterday I mentioned 1.2450 as a level that if surpassed could trigger some bullish action. I does not mean a straight up shot after that, but it would indicate that the Euro is seeing some more aggressive buyers coming in. On Wednesday we approached that level on a significantly strong day for the EUR which produced a bullish engulfing pattern.
The pair currently trades at 1.2392. Failure to get above 1.2450 is bearish as this is the former swing high. Support in this case comes in between 1.2250-1.2225 and 1.2150.
1.2450 is a resistance a level but a move beyond could trigger further buying into 1.2515. Beyond this resistance comes in at 1.2580-1.2600.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Euro Continues to Unwind
There was further selling on Tuesday in the Euro as support and prior lows were taken out. The trend remains down on all time frames. I am still watching for moves above resistance for signals of a reversal, yet breaks below support should also also be traded as that is the current trend.
With the additional selling seen on Tuesday, it will take a move 1.2450 to indicate any bullishness which has a chance of being sustained.
Resistance is at 1.22 followed by 1.2230-1.2250. Resistance beyond is at 1.2280 and 1.2310.
On the downside, support is at 1.2150 with a slide below indicating further selling and a short-term target of 1.2100 and 1.2050.
Cory Mitchell, CMT
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Trader of the year 2010 Championship
Demo Contest Prizes
1st Place Winner
- Round-trip flight to Dubai + Accommodation in a 5-star hotel with touristy activities from Arabian Advertures + Dell Laptop + Trading Credit + Training course with the leading Market Experts in Trading and Technical/Fundamental Analysis. Sponsored by HY Markets
- A bundle of ALL of our Home Study Course valued at $1,800 by Rockwell Trading Inc.
- One set of FXEducator DVDs "Forex Trading with Ed Ponsi" (value $295) by FXEducator
- Complete collection of charting templates and indicators for MT4 plus a set of training videos on how to use them (via download) by fxKnight.com
2nd Place Winner
- Round-trip flight to Dubai + Accommodation in a 5-star hotel with touristy activities from Arabian Advertures + Dell Laptop + Trading Credit + Training course with the leading Market Experts in Trading and Technical/Fundamental Analysis. Sponsored by HY Markets
- Day Trading Home Study Courses valued at $497 by Rockwell Trading Inc.
- Complete collection of charting templates and indicators for MT4 plus a set of training videos on how to use them (via download) by fxKnight.com
- One copy of Millionaire Traders by BK Forex Advisors
3rd Place Winner
- DVD course Can You Make A Living Day Trading valued at $497 by Rockwell Trading Inc.
- Complete collection of charting templates and indicators for MT4 plus a set of training videos on how to use them (via download) by fxKnight.com
- 1 Free Course, to choose between Advanced Price Action Course or Pro Forex Trading Course by Second Skies LLC
Negative Return Contestants
- Free month All Access subscription by 4xLounge
- One month Pro membership, which includes access to our live room by fxKnight.com
- Gift Certificate for 1/2 off any of the courses ($175 value each certificate) by Second Skies LLC
Thursday, October 1, 2009
MIG - The Road to F1 Forex Championship Abu Dhabi 2009
Highscores Result
Start Equity : USD100,000.00
Trading Session : 20 days (1 month)
| Rank: | Amount: | Name: | Country: | Account #: |
| 1 | $30,904,000 | Olexandr | Ukraine | 975124 |
| 2 | $25,737,500 | Przemyslaw | Poland | 971596 |
| 3 | $2,128,110 | Amirhoshang | Iran | 960592 |
| 4 | $1,823,950 | ng | Singapore | 975585 |
| 5 | $1,002,080 | Clarence | United States | 955264 |
| 6 | $947,306 | saeed | Canada | 973242 |
| 7 | $779,416 | Sebastian | Argentina | 976487 |
| 8 | $746,470 | Henry | United States | 955559 |
| 9 | $723,093 | Alessandro | Italy | 968045 |
| 10 | $670,473 | Lin | Singapore | 955337 |
| updated at : Wed Sep 30 23:59:59 CEST 2009 | ||||
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
GBPUSD: Maintaining Recovery Gains
GBPUSD: Upside momentum triggered off the 1.5801 level, its Jun 08'09 high following its corrective weakness off the 1.6662 level now looks to head further higher as price action in early trading today saw the pair gaining more strength. While maintaining those gains, threats for additional upside gains is currently seen towards its 2009 high resting at 1.6662 where a loss will resume its medium term uptrend and open up further upmove towards the 1.7000 level, its big psycho level.
Daily RSI is positive suggesting further strength. On any pullback from the present price levels, its May 27 high at 1.6085 will come in as the nearby support followed by the 1.6000 level, its psycho level. While we expect the latter level to provide support, if a loss of there occurs, GBP could weaken further lower towards the 1.5810 level, its Jun 08'09 low. All in all, while we retain our medium term bullish outlook on GBP, it requires an end to its present correction and a break above the 1.6662 level to resume that uptrend
| Support | Comments |
| 1.6085 | May 27'09 high |
| 1.6000 | Psycho level |
| 1.5810 | Jun 08'09 low |
| Resistance | Comments |
| 1.6398 | Nov 03'09 high |
| 1.6671 | Oct 30,08 high |
| 1.7000 | Psycho level |
Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com
Dollar Declines as Economic Prospects Reduce Safety Demand
The pound advanced versus the dollar as Britain’s political turmoil eased and house prices showed signs of stabilizing last month. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended that its clients buy the euro versus the dollar, citing a recovery in global growth expectations and a “broader pickup” in demand for higher- yielding assets.
“Investment is slowly leaking out of the dollar, into emerging markets and other higher-yielding countries on signs of a green-shoot recovery,” said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the world’s largest custodial bank. “We are in a long-term trend of a controlled decline in the dollar.”
The dollar slid 1 percent to $1.4039 against the euro at 12:07 p.m. in New York, from $1.39 yesterday. The yen traded at 137 versus the euro, compared with 136.89. The dollar decreased 0.9 percent to 97.56 yen from 98.49.
The traded-weighted Dollar Index dropped 0.8 percent to 80.931 after the U.S. government approved 10 banks to buy back $68 billion of government shares. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner called the repayments an “encouraging sign of financial repair.”
The index, used by the ICE to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, reached this year’s low of 78.334 on June 2.
Canadian Dollar
Canada’s dollar and Norway’s krone were among the best performers against the dollar among major currencies today after crude oil rallied to almost $70 a barrel.
The Canadian dollar gained 1 percent to C$1.1051 versus the U.S. dollar, while the krone rose 1.3 percent to 6.3581. The Canadian dollar appreciated 18 percent in the past three months, and the krone advanced 13 percent. Crude oil is Norway’s biggest export, while raw materials account for more than half of Canada’s export revenue.
Brazil’s real rose 1.1 percent to 1.9422 versus the dollar after a government report showed Latin America’s largest economy contracted in the first quarter less than economists forecast. The real appreciated 19 percent versus the greenback this year in the best performance among the 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
“It’s still a risk-positive story,” said Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas Securities SA in New York. “We haven’t seen the top-off of the risky currencies. As long as you have positive surprises in economic readings, assets go up and confidence goes up. It creates a positive feedback.”
Stronger Lats
Latvia’s currency gained the most in three years, spurring a rally in eastern European currencies as plans to cut state spending paved the way for the Baltic country to receive its next international bailout payment.
The lats strengthened as much as 0.9 percent to 0.6990 per euro, the biggest jump since June 2006, and approached the upper limit of the country’s peg to Europe’s single currency.
Latvia is battling to keep its currency within the 1 percent band required of the pre-euro exchange-rate mechanism and to meet budget-cut demands for its 7.5 billion euros ($10.4 billion) International Monetary Fund-led bailout.
Sweden’s krona was the biggest gainer against the euro today among major currencies, appreciating 1 percent to 10.8045. Swedish banks have about $75 billion in loans to the Baltic states, according to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.
Goldman on Euro
The 16-nation euro will rise to $1.45, said Goldman Sachs in a research note today, saying the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising the target rate for overnight lending between banks “for a considerable period of time” in response to a slow recovery.
“The timing is now opportune,” Goldman Sachs wrote. “We think the level of growth will remain below trend, and U.S. rates will be kept low for a considerable period of time.”
The dollar rose the most against the euro in five weeks on June 5 after the Labor Department reported that U.S. job cuts slowed to 345,000 in May, the lowest level in eight months.
The employment report raised speculation that the Fed will boost the target lending rate to at least 0.5 percent by the end of the year. Fed funds futures contracts showed today a 45 percent chance of a rate increase by November, compared with 27 percent odds a week ago.
Dealers’ Fed View
Policy makers will keep the target lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 15 of the 16 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the central bank. A majority predict no increase until at least the second half of 2010.
The pound advanced against the dollar for a second day, increasing 1.4 percent to $1.6274 after the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said the number of respondents in a monthly survey saying home values fell exceeded those reporting gains by 44.1 percentage points, the best reading since November 2007.
Sterling also appreciated on speculation Prime Minister Gordon Brown fended off calls to step down following a series of ministerial resignations and a drubbing in local and European Union elections.
The greenback decreased 6.6 percent against the euro in May, the biggest monthly drop this year, on concern a quadrupling of the U.S. budget deficit will undermine demand for dollar-denominated assets.
The U.S. will issue a record $3.25 trillion of debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to Goldman Sachs, one of the 16 primary dealers that are obliged to participate in government auctions. The Treasury plans to sell $65 billion of notes and bonds this week, including a record-tying $35 billion of three-year debt today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 9, 2009 12:13 EDT
Thursday, June 4, 2009
US Dollar, Japanese Yen Ease Lower - US NFPs Could Determine Risk Trends on Friday
We’ve seen that risk trends are still the primary driver of price action, as the US dollar tends to fall when investor sentiment builds and usually rallies amidst market-wide risk aversion. Thus, it will be necessary to keep this correlation in mind when trading around the time of the release of NFPs. From a technical perspective, the daily chart of the US dollar index shows that the currency bounced on Wednesday from key support at the 61.8 percent fib of 71.32-89.62 at 78.29, but on Thursday, price subsequently backed off from former support at 79.80 (the May 22, 25 lows). These two levels - 78.29 and 79.80 - will essentially become “lines in the sand” on Friday. Indeed, daily RSI for the index rose from overbought levels on Thursday, but we also saw this occur last week, suggesting this is a weak bullish signal.
Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist
FXCM Holdings LLC Releases Financial Data
FXCM Holdings LLC Releases Financial Data:
Highlights of the (unaudited) balance sheet include the following:
$114,985,838 In Capital (Assets Minus Liabilities)
$130,307,551 In Operating Cash (Excludes Client Funds)
Drew Niv, CEO of the global trading firm, commented: "FXCM is proud of our financial discipline and strong balance sheet. We believe clients should have the necessary information to make intelligent choices. By releasing this information, we hope to set an example for the entire forex industry."
Balance Sheet (Unaudited)
FOR THE MONTH ENDED APRIL 30, 2009
(Amounts in USD)
| ASSETS | | |
| | CUSTOMER CASH | 287,614,938 |
| | OPERATING CASH | 130,307,551 |
| | OTHER ASSETS | 9,248,124 |
| | FIXED ASSETS | 10,476,181 |
| | | |
| | TOTAL ASSETS | 437,682,794 |
| | | |
| LIABILITIES | | |
| | CUSTOMER DEPOSITS | 287,614,938 |
| | DEFFERED REVENUE | 16,000,000 |
| | OTHER LIABILITIES | 19,082,018 |
| | | |
| | TOTAL LIABILITIES | 322,696,956 |
| | | |
| CAPITAL | | |
| | FXCM CAPITAL | 114,985,838 |
| | | |
| | TOTAL LIABILITIES AND FXCM CAPITAL | 437,682,794 |
FXCM Holdings, LLC consists of FXCM Australia LTD., Forex Trading LLC, Forex Capital Markets LLC, Forex Capital Markets LTD, FXCM Asia LTD, FXCM Canada LTD and FXCM DMCC.
Please Note: In April, there was a significant drop in the firm's net capital. This decrease is related to FXCM fulfilling its tax obligations. Last year was a terrific year for FXCM with the firm hitting all-time volume highs, and as a result, the ownership of FXCM made payments of nearly $50 Million towards fulfilling taxes due. However, even after such payments, FXCM Holdings, LLC has over $100 Million in firm capital, of which $60,472,142 is held by the firm's US registered entity, Forex Capital Markets LLC.* The remaining capital is held by FXCM’s other entities, including regulated entities in Australia, Dubai, Canada, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom.
# # #
FXCM Holdings, LLC Facts
As of January 2009
· FXCM Holdings LLC has over $100 Million in capital
· More than 125,000 live accounts are traded on FXCM trading platforms
· An average of $500 billion in notional volume is traded each month on FXCM trading platforms
· In excess of $600 million in customer funds trading on platforms offered by FXCM
Trading FX, CFDs and Spread Betting on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
* http://cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@financialdataforfcms/documents/file/fcmdata0409.pdf
Friday, May 8, 2009
Sterling Could Rebound After Strong Retracement Conclusion
Pound Falls against Dollar, Euro as Bank of England Will Buy More Assets The pound fell for the first time in seven days against the dollar after the Bank of England said it will spend an additional 50 billion pounds of newly printed money to spur economic growth.
The dollar headed for a third weekly decline versus the euro, its longest run of losses this year, as a U.S. report may show employers cut jobs at a slower pace, sapping demand for the greenback as a refuge from the slump.
Trading Tactics
Buy GBP/USD on signs of a double bottom.
The buying point is at 1.5036; Pivot point is the take profit at 1.5165;
Fibonacci 61.8% is the stop loss at 1.4970
The selling point is at 1.4940; previous support is the take profit at 1.4835;
Fibonacci 50% is the stop loss at 1.5017
Technical: Sterling breaks previous resistance and continues its uptrend after a reversal pattern double bottom. A move back higher could set up a test of 1.5165
The following analysis is for information only; Finotec is not responsible for any decisions or misinterpretations based on the given text.
Waiting On NFP
Market Brief
The Usd was weaker in the Asian session, as risk appetite firmed on the back of benign stress test results. The EurUsd traded down to 1.3342, before rallying to 1.4329, while the UsdJpy traded between 98.90 and 99.42. The highly anticipated results of the US Bank Stress Test failed to erode the markets growing optimism, even though 10 firms require almost $75bn in additional capital. The fact that the greater part of the results had previously been leaked gave markets some breathing space to price in the final results. In addition, Fed Chairman Bernanke said the results would give markets 'considerable comfort.'.Yesterday's Wall Stress session closed slightly lower, but Asian regional indexes are trading higher. In FX, risk seekers drove up commodity and EM currencies, with the AudUsd trading at 0.7571 and UsdRub trading at 32.5380. Gold longs continue to profit, as the precious metal sustains new price range above $910oz.
The inflation story builds credibility as commodities in the energy sector benefit from heightened risk appetite. Crude oil traded as high as $57bbl and a serious test at $60bbl would constitute a breakout, also bolstering the attractiveness of gold as hedge. Several major events had a substantial impact on market behavior today, two of which were the ECB and BoE meetings, and the last were the announcement of the stress test results. Investors are starting to see justification of the so-called 'green shoots.' The degree of transparency is comforting to Traders looking to capture the potential upside in a possible earlier than expected recovery. Gold can define a range between $850-$950oz over the long-term in either situation, meaning in an environment of increased risk aversion the price would hold steady and if markets stabilize we are likely to see a continued rally in the precious metal.
The RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy contained significant downgrades to growth and inflation.. It also assumed that signs of growth in China , stabilization in Asia and the U.S. would prove durable. However, more rate cuts were signalled, but there is a clear reluctance to do so, as the RBA said further easing would be 'smaller, less frequent' and also dependent on the 'prospects for sustainable recovery'.
Ahead today, the employment report is expected to show a 600k decline in NFP, pushing the unemployment rate up to 8.9%. Initial jobless claims slipped to a monthly average of 637,000 in April from 658,000 in March. The better than expected ADP survey (showed just 491k jobs lost) will have the markets looking for a number to support the recovery story. however, correlations between the two series are small.
Dollar Might Tumble on Upside Surprise in Non-Farm Payroll
Moderating pace of recession has been the talk in the financial markets recently and all investors are looking forward to Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report for affirming this view. Economists expect the US job market to contract by another -620k in the month of Apr with unemployment rate jumping from 8.5% to 8.9%. However, recent economic data mostly point to a better reading. We'll discuss these 'leading' indicators and the possible impact of NFP to dollar below.
One of the most highly correlated indicators to NFP is indeed the employment components of the ISM indices. The employment component of ISM manufacturing index bottomed in Feb and had a very strong rise to 34.4 in Apr. On the other hand, the employment component of ISM non-manufacturing index bottomed at 31.1 last Nov. While there was some set back in March, the component did improve from 32.3 to 37 in Apr. While both were still in contraction region, the rise in Apr suggested that pace of contraction is slowing. Also, we may have seen the worst in job market contraction already and there should be some significant improvement, as implied by the indices in the near future, if not in Apr.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence is another indicator that's closely correlated with NFP as seen in the following chart. Consumer confidence bottomed at 25.3 in Feb and rose remarkably from 26.9 to 39.2 in Apr. The data also suggests that some strong improvement should be seen in NFP in Apr.
In addition, ADP report showed much less than expected contraction in the private sector by -491k only, best number since last October. Challenger layoffs rose by only 47%, least since last September. 4 Week average of initial jobless claims also fell by more than 14k.
Having said that, it's very likely that NFP will surprise on the upside this time with some chance to have the contraction improved to -400k to -500k level.
The dollar continues to be inversely correlated to stocks recently. Since April, Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen around 8.35%. On the other hand, dollar has depreciated over 9% against Australian dollar, over 7% against Canadian dollar and over 5% against Sterling. The greenback only managed to stay in tight range against Euro and Yen, which were both pressured by return of risk appetite.
Strong upside surprises in NFP will likely trigger extension in recent rally in stocks which in turn will trigger some sell off in the greenback. Among the major currencies, AUD and CAD will likely remain the ones to bet against dollar. Euro and Yen will be the ones to avoid in case of dollar weakness.
Source : Actionforex.com
Thursday, May 7, 2009
US Dollar: US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) Could Shake Majors From Key Levels
The US dollar has started May off on a weak note, trading just above key support versus many of the major currencies. However, US leading indicators for this Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFPs) suggest the results could be rather optimistic, providing potential for further dollar declines as traders will opt to buy up risky, higher-yielding currencies.
What is the Market Expecting for April Non-Farm Payrolls?
Arguments for an Improvement In Non-Farm Payrolls
1. Initial jobless claims have gradually backed off from the March 27 high of 674K down to 601K
2. ADP employment change fell less than expected by 491,000, the least since October 2008.
3. Challenger job cuts rose by 47 percent from a year ago, the smallest increase since September 2008
4. ISM services, manufacturing employment indices are still well below 50, but both have improved slightly
5. Conference Board, University of Michigan consumer confidence both surged in April
Based on both a Bloomberg News poll of economists and a variety of leading indicators, Friday’s release of US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) is likely to show job losses for the sixteenth straight month in April, but the rate of decline is anticipated to slow. At the time of writing, Bloomberg News was calling for NFPs to plunge by 600,000, but looking at the range of estimates, economists are anticipating that NFPs could fall anywhere between 360,000 and 750,000. Based on the improvements we’ve seen in leading indicators like initial jobless claims, consumer confidence, and the employment components of ISM non-manufacturing and ISM manufacturing, we expect that NFPs may drop somewhere in the range of 500,000 to 600,000.
That said, the steady accumulation of job losses does not bode well for economic growth going forward and indicates that the unemployment rate will continue to climb. In fact, for the April reading of the rate is projected to rise to 8.9 percent, the highest since September 1983, from 8.5 percent. At the same time, initial estimates of Q1 GDP for the US showed a 2.2 percent jump in personal consumption, after spending contracted for the previous two quarters, suggesting that aggressive discounting by retailers has been able to counter the impact of falling incomes, to a certain degree. In coming months, it will be important to get a sense if the rising optimism amongst consumers – which has been focused more on the economic outlook than current conditions – can remain robust even if growth doesn’t bounce back in the second half of the year.
How Will the US Dollar React?
In preparation for trading this top event risk, we need to put it into the context of everything else that is going on in the markets since there is so much happening. This morning, the Bank of England announced that they were expanding their quantitative easing efforts, the European Central Bank cut rates to 1.00 percent and announced a 60 billion euro credit easing program, and at 17:00 ET tonight, the US government will release the official results of their stress tests on the 19 largest US financial institutions. Since the stress test news has potential to determine price trends for risky assets, including equities and FX carry trades, Friday’s price action may trade more on the sentiment stoked in response to the results rather than the release of NFPs.
From a technical perspective (see charts below), the daily charts of the US dollar index shows that the currency is going to face major support at the confluence of the 200 SMA and a rising trendline at 83.13. Meanwhile, shorter-term charts of EUR/USD (240-minute chart) show that the pair has had trouble pushing above 1.3400, and there is additional resistance looming at 1.3486 (200 SMA on daily charts) and the psychologically important 1.3500 mark. As a result, it will be important to watch how the US dollar responds to these pivotal levels, as a breakdown in the greenback would signal a significant bearish turn in the currency across the majors. On the other hand, a failure and subsequent retracement could indicate that the US dollar is due for a broad rebound.
