Sunday, July 4, 2010
forex my dollar
Friday, June 4, 2010
Daily analysis and trading strategies 6-4-10
Trading strategy: standing aside
Yesterday’s break above the triangle’s resistance line coming from 1.3360 was not sustained and the euro came under selling pressure, bringing the 1.2150 support region back in focus, negating my expectations that euro’s recovery could have continued towards 1.2430/50. Support into the 1.2150 region still holds and this is the 3rd week it comes under pressure. Keep in mind that EURCHF is also near recent bottom where SNB’s interventions were triggered, and if that is the case, again, potential intervention in EURCHF will push the EUR higher against the USD, too. In case of a pullback to the upside, resistance may limit gains at 1.2250 or higher, at 1.2330/50. Today’s NFP release is expected to print a positive figure of 500k. Current exchange rate is 1.2176 @04:50 GMT
Support: 1.2150, 1.2100/10 and 1.200
Resistance: 1.2250, 1.2340, 1.2430/50 and 1.2470/00
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish
- EURUSD 4hrs chart 6-4-2010
GBPUSD
Cable lost some ground and fell below the 1.4700 mark for the second time this week, but found support around 1.4600 – formed by last week’s top side. Short-term sentiment remains slightly bullish as long as the rising trend line connecting recent higher lows is intact. Current exchange rate is 1.4631 @04:50 GMT
Support:1.4600, 1.4550 and 1.4400
Resistance: 1.4730/60, 1.4800 and 1.4900
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – neutral
- GBPUSD 4hrs chart 6-4-2010
Have a good day!
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
EURO
The pair continued its negative pressure in order to breach pivotal support shown in red in the image above, where it has currently turned into resistance at 1.2360. We expect this level to be retested due to the positive effect of momentum indicators, followed by continuing the bearish intraday trend and initially targeting key support 1.2180. It is vital that the four hour closing continues below 1.2360 to maintain the suggested scenario.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2180 and the key resistance at 1.2470.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.3770 remains intact with targets at 1.1700.
Support: 1.2270, 1.2230, 1.2180, 1.2140, 1.2125
Resistance: 1.2360, 1.2410, 1.2470, 1.2545, 1.2615
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.2360 targeting 1.2180 and stop loss above 1.2470, might be appropriate.
GBP
The pivotal support level 1.4345 – 1.4340 maintains its stance in front of the pair's attempts to descend, where it has started to form a possible neckline for the bearish technical pattern that is completed. Due to the effect of the minor descending channel which controls intraday trading, we expect a breach of this level to pave the way towards the expected bearish direction over an intraday basis; targeting first 1.4230. This scenario first requires a clear breach of the mentioned level as well as stability below 1.4420 to prevail.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4155 and the key resistance at 1.4460.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.5590 remains intact with targets at 1.3800.
Support: 1.4340, 1.4295, 1.4230, 1.4195, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4420, 1.4460, 1.4530, 1.4600, 1.4640
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.4345 targeting 1.4415 and stop loss below 1.4295, might be appropriate.
JPY
The pair's trading is wedged between correction 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci for the last bearish wave, where it seems that there isn't enough momentum to retest the previously broken support level at 91.10. From here, we expect a base to be built on 38.2% Fibonacci at 90.70, followed by a bearish reversal that the pair will achieve through it the bearish intraday trend; targets start at 89.00 and require the daily closing to stabilize below 91.10.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 88.70 and the key resistance at 91.10.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 101.65 remains intact with targets at 82.60.
Support: 90.00, 89.65, 89.00, 88.70, 88.40
Resistance: 91.10, 91.60, 92.25, 92.80, 93.30
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 91.00 targeting 90.00 and stop loss above 91.60, might be appropriate.
CHF
The pair stabilized above the resistance for the sideway range shown yesterday at 1.1585, while signs of an ascending channel that organizes the current short term wave is appearing. Despite of the negative signs appearing on momentum indicators, currently MA 50 supports the bullish wave; therefore, we expect the pair to witness more bullish movement over an intraday basis, as its main target for today is level 1.1790 and requires the stability of support levels between 1.1530 – 1.1460 to prevail. Meanwhile, overbought momentum indicators could cause fluctuation and some bearish correction from time to time.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1460 and the key resistance at 1.1790.
The short term trend is to the upside as far as 1.0200 remains intact with targets at 1.2000.
Support: 1.1585, 1.1535, 1.1460, 1.1430, 1.1385
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1685, 1.1735, 1.1790, 1.1825
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.1585 targeting 1.1685 and stop loss below 1.1535, might be appropriate.
CAD
The pair stabilized with correction levels between 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci, in addition to MA 100 standing as strong support in front of the pair's attempts to bearishly correct. Meanwhile, the pair managed to push upwards to breach minor pivotal resistance at 1.0660 that will pave the way towards achieving the bullish trend over an intraday basis. The negative momentum we can expect to rid of them when the broken resistance is retested. Technical targets expected for today start at 1.0745 then 1.0795. It is vital that 1.0565 stabilizes to achieve expectations.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0565 and the key resistance at 1.0865.
The short term trend is to the upside as far as 0.9925 remains intact with targets at 1.1485.
Support: 1.0660, 1.0610, 1.0565, 1.0535, 1.0500
Resistance: 1.0745, 1.0785, 1.0865, 1.0900, 1.0960
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0660 targeting 1.0795 and stop loss below 1.0565, might be appropriate.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
The Trading Week: May 24 - May 28
In preparation for the new trading week, here is a look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.
Monday, May 24 will begin with the Japanese All Industries Index of activity in all sectors of the economy, at 12:30 am, ET, and the Bank of Japan Monthly Bulletin on monetary policy, inflation and economic conditions, at 1:00 am, ET.
The first spotlight event of the week- the U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, will be released at 10:00 am, ET.
As home buyers made the final push trying to take advantage of the tax credit before the April 30, 2010 deadline, the existing home sales could rise to 5.65 M in April from 5.4 M homes sold in March.
The light on economic data day will conclude with the New Zealand Inflation Expectations survey on the inflation outlook of business executives, at 11:00 pm, ET.
Tuesday, May 25 will start with the Swiss Consumption Indicator of consumer spending, at 2:00 am, ET.
One of the major spotlight events of the week will follow with the release of the U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, at 4:30 am, ET, along with a leading indicator of the U.K. housing market- the British Bankers Association’s Mortgage Approvals Report, measuring the number of issued home loans, also at 4:30 am, ET.
The U.K. economic growth in Q1 2010 is expected to be revised higher to 0.3% q/q from the preliminary estimate of 0.2% q/q.
The Euro-zone Industrial Orders, a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, will come at 5:00 am, ET.
The U.S. economic data will begin with the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index of the monthly changes in the average price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas, at 9:00 am, ET.
A spotlight event will follow with the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, at 10:00 am, ET. The trend of rising consumer confidence could continue with a reading of 58.3 in May, compared with 57.9 in the previous month.
More U.S. economic reports will include the Richmond Fed Index of manufacturing activity in the Richmond Federal Reserve district, at 10:00 am, ET, and the U.S. House Price Index of the price changes of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie May and Freddie Mac, also at 10:00 am, ET.
The day will end with the Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes from the last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy and the bank’s future monetary policy, at 7:50 pm, ET, along with the Japanese CSPI- Corporate Services Price Index, a measure of inflation experienced by corporations when purchasing services, also at 7:50 pm, ET.
Wednesday, May 26 will begin with the German Gfk Group Consumer Climate Survey, an early indicator of economic conditions and consumer expectations, at 2:00 am, ET, and the U.K. Nationwide House Price Index of changes in home prices, also expected around 2:00 am, ET.
The U.S economic data will start with a spotlight event- the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity, measuring orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods, at 8:30 am, ET.
Orders for durable goods are forecasted to increase to 1.4% in April from the March decline of 0.3%.
More U.S economic reports will include a spotlight event- the U.S. New Home Sales, a gauge of housing market conditions measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the previous month, at 10:00 am, ET, and the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Oil Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.
The second half of the U.S. housing data could show further signs of improvement in housing market activity, with the new home sales expected to rise from 411 K in March to 425 K in April.
The day will conclude with a series of important economic data, beginning with the New Zealand Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports, at 6:45 pm, ET.
A spotlight event will follow with the release of the Japanese Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services, at 7:50 pm, ET.
With the Japanese industrial activity and exports picking up in Q1 2010, the trade surplus may rise above JPY 948.9 B in April.
The Australian Leading Indicators of economic activity will wrap up the day at 8:00 pm, ET.
Thursday, May 27 will start with the Swiss Employment Report, a measure of employment, labor market conditions and trends, at 3:15 am, ET.
A notable report from the U.K. will follow with the release of the CBI- Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trades Survey of realized sales made by retailers and wholesalers, at 6:00 am, ET.
The U.S. economic data will bring the main spotlight event of the week- the U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the most important measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, at 8:30 am, ET.
The U.S. economic growth in Q1 2010 is expected to be revised higher to 3.3% q/q compared with the preliminary estimate of 3.2% q/q.
The U.S. reports will continue with the weekly Jobless Claims, a gauge of labor market conditions measuring new unemployment claims, at 8:30 am, ET, and the EIA- Energy Information Administration Natural Gas Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.
The day will conclude with a sequence of important economic data, beginning with the U.K. Consumer Confidence, a survey of consumers’ outlook on economic conditions, at 7:00 pm, ET.
A major spotlight event- the Japanese CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, will hit the newswires at 7:30 pm, ET, along with the Japanese Unemployment Rate and Household Spending, also at 7:30 pm, ET.
The CPI report could show that deflation continues to pose threat to the Japanese economy with anticipated April national core CPI reading of -1.1%.
The day will end with the Japanese Retail Sales, an important measure of consumer spending, at 7:50 pm, ET.
Friday, May 28 will begin with the Swiss Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports, at 2:15 am, ET, and the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, a leading indicator of economic activity, at 5:30 am, ET.
The Canadian Current Account of goods, services and transfer of payments into and out of the country will follow at 8:30 am, ET.
One of the major spotlight events of the week will bring the U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Deflator- a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Fed because it measures a variable basket of goods and services, as opposed to the CPI-Consumer Price Index which measures a fixed basket of goods and services, both scheduled at 8:30 am, ET.
The data is expected to show the U.S. consumers spending less at 0.3% m/m in April from 0.6% m/m in March, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge could signal subdued inflationary pressures below 2.0% y/y and only 0.1% m/m increase in the core PCE prices in April.
The U.S. data will continue with the National Association of Purchasing Management – Chicago Index of economic conditions in the Chicago area, at 9:45 am, ET.
The trading week will end with a spotlight event- the U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, scheduled at 9:55 am, ET.
The index could confirm the trend of rising consumer sentiment with a reading of 73.7 in May, compared with the previous estimate of 73.3.
Friday, May 21, 2010
EURJPY closed @ 11200 which was BELOW the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 135 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 10. The Hourly Oscillators are Turning Bullish and the Price is Below the MA, so the Bears have to be CAUTIOUS. Hourly Trend is Turning Up while 11170 holds and Daily Trend is Corrective Down while 11785 holds, so expect the Price to Turn Up Soon, so the Bears may stay Sidelined and the Bulls get ready to pull the Trigger. The Daily Trend breached the Prior Day's Low but the Bears gave up more than half of their gains towards the Close. The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with an Upside Bias ,11230-11170 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bullish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the steep Up Channel and the Patterns are suggesting that the Price may have bottomed. The Opening Price Principles suggests that EUR is very Strong and the JPY is Weak, so the both the Cross may drag the EURJPY Higher so the Bears must be Sidelined.
BULLS: 11300 11240 11170 BEARS: 11400 11485 11565
Today's Strategies: LONG near 11305 11230 with a tight stop with a 50 pips price target.
GBPJPY closed @ 12885 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Critical Sup. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the Price is Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Corrective Down while 13105 holds and Daily Trend is also Corrective Down while 13565 holds, so expect the Price to have a Limited Downside and the Bears have to be Cautious. The Daily Trend Plunged Below the Prior Day's Low but the Bears gave up part of their gains towards the Close. The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with an Upside Bias ,13065-13105 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the gradual Up Channel and the Patterns are suggesting that the Price may bottom Soon. The Opening Price Principles suggests that GBP is Strong and the JPY is Weak, so the both the Cross may drag the GBPJPY Higher so the Bears must be Sidelined.
BULLS: 12935 12860 12775 BEARS: 13025 13105 13185
Today's Strategies: LONG near 12940 12870 with a tight stop with a 50 pips price target.
AUDJPY closed @ 7330 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 265 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 10. The Hourly Oscillators are Turning Bullish and the Price is Below the MA, so the Bears have to be CAUTIOUS. Hourly Trend is Turning Up while 7310 holds and Daily Trend is Corrective Down while 8040 holds, so expect the Price to Turn Up Soon, so the Bears may stay Sidelined and the Bulls get ready to pull the Trigger. The Daily Trend Plunged Below the Prior Day's Low but the Bears were holding their gains till the Close. The Hourly Trend has been marching Higher and expect it to continue , 7415-7310 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bullish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the steep Up Channel and the Patterns are suggesting that the Price may have bottomed. The Opening Price Principles suggests that AUD is very Strong and the JPY is Weak, so the both the Cross may drag the AUDJPY Higher so the Bears must be Sidelined.
BULLS: 7430 7345 7305 BEARS: 7530 7660 7740
Today's Strategies: LONG near 7435 7370 with a tight stop with a 50 pips price target.
credit: forexpros
FX Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Comment: A small inverted 'head-and-shoulders' on the hourly chart above underlines the fact the Euro is trying to base against 1.2140, the 50% retracement of its rally from the all-time low at 0.8228 in October 2000 to the record high at 1.6040 in July 2008. A high today at 1.2673, shy of our first target at 1.2700, suggests consolidation between here and the 'neckline' this morning. A weekly close above 1.2800, which might be too much for this week, would add weight to our view that we are trying to form a medium term interim base.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.2595, adding to 1.2500; stop below 1.2200. First target 1.2700.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.2500 " | 1.26 |
| 1.2455* | 1.2673* |
| 1.24 | 1.27 |
| 1.2345 | 1.2740* |
| 1.2295* 1.2140** | 1.28 |
GBPUSD
Comment: Neither the best nor the worst performing currency this week – which is where you want to be in current market conditions. Cable is still clinging to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement support in a small sideways consolidation. A weekly close above 1.4550 might buy it a little room to breathe and ought to set off a short squeeze to 1.4750.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4410; stop below 1.4200. First target 1.4500, then 1.4745.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 1.4300 " | 1.4468 |
| 1.4248/1.4238* | 1.4522 |
| 1.42 | 1.4550* |
| 1.4135 | 1.4645 |
| 1.4100* | 1.4745 |
USDJPY
Comment: It looks like a 'triangle', it feels like nervous consolidation in a massive 'triangle', it is a continuation pattern. Many are hoping that markets that have suddenly collapsed will find support around this year's lows, the rumour mill suggesting some intervention is likely (Australia) or has been seen (Switzerland). Another nerve-wracking weekend lies in store. What would you do? Live in hope or take defensive action? Bearish momentum is currently stronger than it has been since May 2009 and a weekly close clearly below 88.70 would be very, very negative indeed. Then listen for squeals from the authorities.
Strategy: Sell at 90.25 but only if prepared to add to 91.50; stop above 92.15. First target 89.00, then 88.00.
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 90.00 " | 90.37 |
| 89.7 | 90.75 |
| 89.35 | 91.00* |
| 88.95* | 91.5 |
| 87.95** | 91.85 |
EURJPY
Comment: All too many will be looking at yen crosses and stock indices, pointing out how close we are to this year's lows, fingers crossed that chart support will hold. We disagree and feel we have a nail-biting weekend ahead. Yesterday's large 'spike low' at 109.47 is the lowest point since November 2001 a 75% retracement from the all-time low at 88.93 of October 2000 to the all-time high at 169.97 of July 2008. The chart is looking increasingly like a 'right-angled triangle' – a continuation pattern which suggests another leg lower for the yen crosses. This is a market trading at an extreme and desperately looking for direction while the authorities hope for support. A real tussle which increasingly looks as though it will be resolved with a huge clear-out to the downside.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 113.35, adding to 114.40; stop above 115.65. Target 112.00, then 110.50 and eventually more
Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
| Support | Resistance |
| 112.45 " | 114.4 |
| 111 | 115 |
| 110.85 | 115.58* |
| 110.49/110.25* | 116.5 |
| 109.47* 108.70 106.80* | 117 |
Forex: USD/JPY picks up from 88.95 and reaches 90.00 area
On the upside, the pair remains capped by session high at 90.35, with next potential resistance areas at 90.85/95 (May 19 high) and 91.20 (200-day MA). On the downside, immediate support lies at 89.95, and below here, 89.60/75 (intra-day support) and 89.30/40 (intra-day support).
EUR/JPY plunged yesterday from 114.00 area to hit fresh 9,5 years low at 109.45 on US session, although the pair has managed to regain all the lost territory, reaching 114.40 high on Asian trade, before pulling back to 113.20 at European opening. Resistance levels are 114.40 and 114.80. Support levels lie at 112.10 and 111.00.
EUR/JPY (May 21 at 07:09 GMT)
113.70/73 (2.14%)
H 114.41 L 111.18
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 112.65 | 112.94 | 113.22 | 113.57 | 113.85 | 114.14 |
| [?]Trend Index | [?]OB/OS Index |
| Slightly Bearish | Neutral |
| Data updated on May 21 at 06:58 (15-minute timeframe) | |